The snow is slowly melting on Ukraine’s front lines, but fighting continues to intensify. After a disastrous second anniversary of the war, Ukrainian troops crouching in their trenches with long faces are growing weary. The initial shock and disbelief has faded, replaced by a deep sense of weariness and the harsh reality of protracted conflict. What was originally a story of brave Ukrainian resistance to a clumsy Russian invasion turned into a complex and brutal war of attrition, in which all gains came at great cost.
On February 24, 2022, the world watched in disbelief as Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in an effort to force a quick regime change. However, the initial excitement of the Russian Blitz quickly faded. Underestimated and outgunned, the Ukrainian army surprised the world with its fierce resistance. Ukraine was seen as a rebellious nation in this David-versus-Goliath battle against President Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been hailed as a hero against Western villain Vladimir Putin. He was armed with Western anti-tank weapons such as Javelins and NLAWs and inflicted significant damage on Russian armored columns. Images of damaged Russian tanks forced Moscow to retreat, regroup, and change tactics.
(Photo: Russian armored personnel carrier damaged near Kharkov)
Learning from its early failures, Moscow adopted a more methodical approach. They shifted their focus to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, employing heavy artillery bombardment and encirclement tactics. While Ukrainian forces continued to put up fierce resistance, imbalances in firepower and personnel began to become apparent. Cities like Mariupol were reduced to rubble, and the human toll of the war inexorably increased.
Western support for Ukraine is critical to continued resistance. Since the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine has received more than $230 billion in aid. Billions of dollars in military aid, including advanced weapons such as the HIMARS rocket system and the Patriot missile system, have given the Ukrainian military the firepower to counter Russian forces. But for now, the flow of aid is a trickle. Western reluctance is often tied to complex political calculations and bureaucratic hurdles. Because of this, Kiev always feels like it is on the brink, and giving weapons feels like a reprieve, but by no means a solution.
(Photo: Ukrainian soldier sitting near an anti-tank missile)
Two years have passed since the start of the war, and the situation on the ground is dire. Russia focused on consolidating its control over the Donbass region, seizing important territory in the east. Although Ukraine’s military has shown remarkable resilience, it is increasingly stretched thin in the face of manpower shortages and dwindling ammunition supplies. The initial euphoria of early victories has been replaced by a desperate struggle for survival with no clear end in sight.
Although Russia currently has superior territory and firepower, it cannot deny its own problems. Sanctions have crippled the economy, weakened morale, and the true cost of war in lives and resources is beginning to sink in. The question remains: Can Russia maintain this level of aggression indefinitely, and at what cost?
A $95 billion U.S. aid plan for Ukraine remains stalled on Capitol Hill. U.S. President Joe Biden is pushing for it, but former President Donald Trump has told Republicans to rein it in, making Zelenskiy nervous. The uncertainty adds to the frustration for Ukraine, which is already suffering from shortages and faces a critical juncture in the war. Ukraine’s president is now calling on Western countries to accelerate the delivery of promised air defense systems and fighter jets.
There is a sense of urgency to Kiev’s pleas, as ammunition is desperately lacking. US President Joe Biden renewed his call on Republicans in Congress to lift the block on additional funding to Ukraine. “We can’t walk away now,” Biden said.
(Photo: Ukrainian soldiers firing at Avdiivka)
Beyond the military developments, the human cost of this war is staggering. Thousands of civilians were killed, millions displaced, and entire cities’ infrastructure was left in ruins. The scars of this conflict will reverberate for generations to come, leaving behind trauma, grief and a deep sense of loss.
The war in Ukraine has entered a dangerous and unpredictable stage. As it approaches its second anniversary, Western countries face a complex dilemma. How much aid can be provided without escalating into wider conflict? Can diplomacy find a path to peace, or are we doomed to a long and bloody stalemate? The answer remains elusive. Instead, it is shrouded in the fog of war and uncertainty about the future. But one thing is clear: the cost of inaction is as great as the cost of war.
(Disclaimer: The author’s views do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL, and WION or ZMCL do not endorse the author’s views.)