With a general election likely to be held later this year, the first Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll of 2024 finds a significant shift in voter mood, with a quarter of voters still undecided. It has been shown that the outcome of the election will be greatly influenced.
The most notable feature of this poll is the sharp decline in support for Sinn Féin and the corresponding increase in satisfaction with the government and all three Coalition leaders.
Sinn Féin remains the biggest party with 28%, down six points since the last Irish Times poll in September, but it no longer looks like the unstoppable force it was two years ago. do not have. As the party’s support has fallen, so has its leader, Mary Lou Macdonald, who is now trailing behind Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar.
The government’s two main parties remained stable with Fine Gael’s support rising only slightly, but the Greens rose two points to 5%. The coalition currently has a combined vote share of 44%, far exceeding Sinn Féin, and there is a good chance of re-election if both parties switch positions in the election.
However, Sinn Féin’s continued status as the leading party gives hope that it can regain last year’s momentum. It is clear that he has ambitions to enter government as part of a coalition, but who that partner will be is an open question.
The public’s generally positive view of Michael Martin during his two years as Taoiseach has helped him maintain his position as the most popular leader, and it has also influenced his party, with the Fianna – Fehr’s approval rating remains at 20%.
Leo Varadkar, like his party, led by one point, but both parties will need to step up support further this year if they are likely to continue in their current coalition structure after the election. Dew.
It was encouraging news for the Green Party, whose support rating rose to 5%. The key factor here is that the vote share in Dublin has doubled to 10 per cent, and if this figure holds, it gives the party a real chance of retaining a large number of seats in the capital. .
Another small party that could receive positive news from the polls is the Social Democratic Party, whose support has doubled to 4%, putting it on par with Labor. Support for smaller left-wing parties is also increasing.
The combined support rate for independents and small parties increased by 3 points to 25%, but the vote share among independents decreased slightly. Given that undecided voters and independents make up more than 40 percent of the electorate, it is impossible to predict what will happen when the election is called. Everything is yet to come.