Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Joe Biden, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez attend the Ukraine Compact Conference on the sidelines of the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington DC, 11 July 2024. Photo by Yves Herman/Reuters
Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential race has cast more uncertainty around the world at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, an increasingly assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far-right in Europe.
Biden has built extensive personal relationships with foreign leaders over a political career spanning five decades, more than any other Democratic candidate. Messages of support and gratitude for his years of service poured in from far and wide after his announcement.
read more: What political leaders said about Biden’s decision to forgo reelection
The range of foreign policy challenges facing the next US president makes it clear how profoundly what happens in Washington will affect the rest of the world. Here are some of them.
Israel
As Vice President Kamala Harris is being eyed as a possible successor to Biden, Israelis scrambled on Sunday to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country as it finds itself increasingly isolated from the world over its military campaign against Hamas.
The left-leaning Israeli daily Haaretz ran an article scrutinizing Harris’ record in supporting Israel, pointing out Biden’s reputation as a “bad cop” who has been a vocal critic of Israeli attacks in Gaza. In recent months, Harris has gone further than Biden in calling for a ceasefire, condemning the Israeli invasion of Rafah and expressing horror at the number of civilian deaths in Gaza.
read more: Biden, Netanyahu to meet during Israeli PM’s US visit, sources say
“With Biden gone, Israel has likely lost its last Zionist president,” said Alon Pincus, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate would be a game changer.”
Biden’s staunch defense of Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack is rooted in his half-century of support for the country as a senator, vice president and president. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thanked Biden for his “longstanding and unwavering support for Israel.”
“Your unwavering support, especially during the war, has been invaluable,” Gallant wrote to X.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Biden as “a symbol of the inseparable bond between our two peoples” and “a true ally of the Jewish people.” There was no immediate response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of former President Donald Trump, whose history of friendship with Biden soured during the Israel-Hamas war.
Ukraine
The Democratic nominee is likely to continue Biden’s tradition of robust military support for Ukraine, but there is growing discontent with the Biden administration in Ukraine and Europe over the slow pace of U.S. assistance and restrictions on Western use of weapons.
“Most Europeans realize that Ukraine is going to become more and more of a burden for them,” said Sueda David Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a research institute. “Everyone is trying to prepare for all possible outcomes.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the White House that he respected Biden’s “tough but strong decision” to drop out of the race, and thanked him for his help in “stopping (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s occupation of our country.”
read more: Zelensky: Ukraine will ‘always be grateful’ for Biden’s leadership
Trump has promised to end Russia’s war against Ukraine in a day if elected, a prospect that has raised fears in Ukraine that Russia may be allowed to continue holding onto territory it occupies.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, has been one of the most vocal opponents of U.S. aid to Ukraine in Congress, further increasing the risks for Kiev.
Russia, meanwhile, has downplayed the importance of the competition, arguing that Moscow will continue its offensive in Ukraine no matter what happens.
“We need to pay attention,” the pro-Russia tabloid quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying, “and wait to see what happens and take our own actions.”
China
In recent months, both Biden and Trump have sought to show voters who can best counter Beijing’s military buildup and belligerence and protect American businesses and workers from cheap Chinese goods. Biden has raised tariffs on electric vehicles from China, while Trump has pledged to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese products.
Trump’s “America First” policies exacerbated tensions with Beijing, but the country’s struggles with its geopolitical rival and economic superpower over war, trade, technology and security have continued under Biden’s term.
China has been cautious in its official reactions to the US presidential election. The state-run Xinhua News Agency played down Biden’s decision relatively, while Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Communist Party-run Global Times, downplayed the impact of Biden’s withdrawal.
“It may be the same no matter who the Democratic presidential nominee is,” he wrote to X. “Veterans are split into two groups: Trump supporters and Trump haters.”
Iran
The United States is confronting a turbulent region as Iranian proxies across the Middle East become increasingly embroiled in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Tel Aviv for the first time last week, triggering retaliatory Israeli strikes inside war-torn Yemen. Simmering tensions between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia and Israeli forces, as well as cross-border attacks, have raised fears of an all-out war across the region.
Hamas, which is also backed by Iran, is still fighting Israel nine months into a war that has killed 38,000 Palestinians and displaced more than 80 percent of the Gaza Strip’s population.
The United States and its allies accuse Iran of expanding its nuclear program and enriching uranium to an unprecedented 60 percent, almost weapons-grade, level.
Biden has said he wants to reverse his predecessor’s hardline anti-Iran stance after then-President Trump withdrew from Iran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers in 2018. But his administration has maintained tough economic sanctions on Iran and overseen failed attempts to renegotiate the deal.
The sudden death in a helicopter crash of Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline protege of the supreme leader, has given Iran a new reformist president, creating new opportunities and risks. Massoud Pezeshkian says he wants to help open up Iran to the world but maintains a defiant stance toward the United States.
Europe and NATO
Many Europeans have rejoiced at Mr Trump’s years of belittling the European Union and weakening NATO, and his dismissive attitude towards European allies during last month’s presidential debate did little to ease those concerns.
Biden, meanwhile, supports closer ties between the US and the bloc’s leaders.
That closeness was on clear display after Biden decided to drop out of the race. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the hardest decision of my life.” Newly installed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he respected Biden’s “decision that I believe is in the best interests of the American people.”
clock: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz discusses NATO’s future, aid to Ukraine and cooperation with Biden
Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris also gushed about Biden, calling him a “proud American with an Irish soul.”
Analysts say the outcome of the election raises the question of whether NATO can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and thwarting the ambitions of other authoritarian states.
“They don’t want to see Donald Trump become president, so they’re pretty relieved, but they’re also pretty worried, about Biden’s decision to pull out,” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Like a lot of people in the U.S., maybe even more than Americans, they’re really pretty troubled.”
Mexico
Mexico and the United States’ close ties have been marked in recent years by disagreements over trade, energy and climate change. Since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office in 2018, the two countries have found common ground on immigration, with Mexico making it harder for migrants to cross the U.S. border and the U.S. not pressuring them on other issues.
The Lopez Obrador administration maintained that policy during the Trump presidency and has continued it under the Biden administration.
Mexico’s president said Friday he plans to write Trump a letter calling him a “friend” and warning him against promising to close the border or blaming migrants for bringing drugs into the United States.
“We’re going to prove to him that immigrants are not bringing drugs into the United States,” he said, adding that “closing the border doesn’t solve anything, and it never will.”
Associated Press writers Jill Lawless in London, Daria Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia and Josh Goodman in Miami contributed to this report.