The world doesn’t vote in U.S. presidential elections, nor do global juries have any say in the U.S. judicial system. But the conviction of Donald J. Trump on all 34 felony counts in his hush money trial in a New York court on Thursday underscored just how significant what happens in America is for the rest of the planet.
Many America watchers are grappling with the same questions posed by the American public: Can Trump still run for president? (Yes, he can)? And if he can, would a conviction diminish support from his political base? (Unclear).
Foreign observers are also beginning to wonder whether Trump, already a volatile force, may be even less likely to stay within the guardrails of normal politics and diplomacy if he wins the presidential election again in November.
Anti-immigration, right-wing nationalist supporters abroad were quick to defend Trump, with Hungary’s pro-Russia Prime Minister Viktor Orban calling Trump an “honorable man” in a post on X and saying Americans should make their own decision in November.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the far-right League party, Matteo Salvini, expressed his “solidarity and full support” and called Trump a “victim of judicial harassment.”
“This verdict is a disgrace,” Nigel Farage, honorary chairman of the small right-wing British political party Reform UK, a Brexiteer and Trump supporter, wrote on social media. “Trump will now win a landslide victory.”
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin did not immediately respond to the verdict, but has sought to use the situation more broadly to weaken U.S. influence. Last year, Putin called the various cases against Mr. Trump political “persecution” and said they revealed “the corruption of an American political system that cannot even pretend to teach democracy to other countries.”
Spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov reiterated that point Friday following the verdict, saying it was clear to the whole world that U.S. authorities were trying to eliminate political opponents “by all legal and illegal means.”
The guilty verdict by a Manhattan jury comes at a time when the issue of American commitment is at the heart of several global crises.
In Ukraine, Republican lawmakers have delayed U.S. military aid for months, hampering the war effort against Russia.
In Europe, leaders who rely on the U.S. for their defense worry that relations with Washington could deteriorate again and lead to the withdrawal of U.S. support for bolstering their defenses against Russia.
In Asia, the Biden administration sees a growing threat from China and worries about a possible invasion of Taiwan, while U.S. allies are concerned about the sanctity of defense treaties that have long underpinned the regional security order.
During the campaign, Trump said he would encourage Russia to attack NATO members that do not adequately pay for their own defense, and he has questioned whether the United States should defend South Korea, a treaty ally that hosts a large U.S. military base. Trump is considering as his running mate Sen. J.D. Vance, an Ohio senator who has been Washington’s most vocal opponent of military aid to Ukraine.
International analysts worry that the unpredictability of Trump’s preferred currency could once again destabilize the world order.
Concerns about Trump potentially returning to the White House are particularly pronounced in Germany, a target of his ire for much of his first term and where more than 35,000 U.S. troops are stationed.
Andrea Romere, vice dean of the Hertie School of Public Policy in Berlin, said many Germans who followed Trump’s verdict were relieved to know that in the United States, even former presidents are not above the law. But Germans remain deeply uneasy about Trump’s victory, she said.
“I think everyone is prepared for the unthinkable,” she said.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has been accused by his country’s right-wing opposition of using the judiciary to settle political differences, welcomed Trump’s conviction in New York as a “lesson from America” for Polish politicians.
“Whether the perpetrator is the president or a minister, the law will determine guilt and punishment,” Tusk said in a message posted on X. A veteran centrist, Tusk took office after October elections that ousted a nationalist government that had forged close ties with Trump during and after his time in the White House.
Still, most foreign governments, forced to ride the wave of every shift in the U.S. political landscape, reacted cautiously on Friday.
“We would like to refrain from commenting on matters relating to judicial proceedings in other countries,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said at a news conference in Tokyo on Friday.
In the UK, where a national election is underway, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has refused to discuss Trump’s case, and his Labour opponent Keir Starmer, a former prosecutor, said he respected the Supreme Court’s decision and called the situation unprecedented.
“Ultimately it is a matter for the American people as to whether he is elected president or not and of course if we have the honour of having him as president we will work with whoever they elect as president,” Starmer told BBC Radio Scotland.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning declined to comment on the ruling, saying he hoped whoever is elected president would “strive to develop healthy and stable China-U.S. relations.”
The possibility of Trump returning to the White House has caused anxiety for U.S. allies in Asia who rely on Washington for their defense.
During Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s official visit to Washington in April, President Biden called the relationship the most important bilateral alliance in the world. Amid growing U.S. concerns about China’s growing military influence, Biden has been strengthening U.S. defense cooperation with Asian countries including Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
In contrast, during his presidency, Trump asked Japan, which has more than 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in the country, to pay $8 billion for the upkeep of U.S. military bases there (a request that ultimately did not materialize).
Yet no matter who wins the US presidential election, the fundamental tension in regional geopolitics – the rivalry between the US and China – is likely to continue.
“Beijing has no illusions about either Trump or Biden given their firm anti-China stances,” said Lau Siu-kai, a Chinese government adviser on Hong Kong policy. “Beijing is preparing for a more intense confrontation with the U.S. over technology, trade and Taiwan.”
Willy Lam, a China political analyst at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, said officials at the Chinese embassy and consulates across China were likely scrambling to assess how the ruling would affect the election.
“Most of Xi Jinping’s advisers believe that a Trump presidency could be detrimental to U.S.-China relations,” Lam said of China’s top leader. “If Trump wins, given the current special circumstances of his victory, he may engage in unpredictable behavior to assert his authority.”
There is a sense in Asia that the region has been consistently overlooked and undervalued by the U.S. president, especially as Biden has focused his attention on crises in Europe and the Middle East. This feeling was also strong during Trump’s presidency, but was exacerbated for U.S. partners in Asia by his closeness to regional strongmen.
In addition to occasionally expressing his admiration for Mr. Trump has invited the former Thai army commander who led a coup to become prime minister to the White House to praise Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and he also received praise from former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who is under investigation by the International Criminal Court for his role in the drug war.
The Philippines is currently led by the son of longtime dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos, who died in exile in Hawaii, and who is trying to reorient the country away from China and towards the United States.
Other countries around the world are far ahead of the United States, at least in terms of prosecuting former leaders. In South Korea, four former presidents have been convicted of corruption and abuse of power, and jailing disgraced leaders has become a kind of national sport. Former French presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac were both convicted of corruption.
Former South African president Jacob Zuma was indicted on money laundering and other charges. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was sentenced to several years in prison for corruption after leading Brazil. His conviction was eventually overturned and he became the country’s president again.
Stephen Castle, Elisabetta Povoledo, Roger Cohen, Zhishu Wang and Andrew Higgins contributed reporting. Camille Jeremiah, Choi Sang-hoon, Motoko Rich, Alexandra Stevenson, Swee Lee Wee and Samir Yasir.