United Nations (AP) — The world’s population is expected to grow by more than 2 billion people A new United Nations report released on Thursday predicted that the world’s population will decline in the coming decades and peak at about 10.3 billion people in the 2080s, a stark difference from a decade ago.
The report, released on World Population Day, says the world’s population is expected to fall to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
John Wilmoth, director of the UN Population Division, who produced the report, said there was a very good chance – about 80% – that the world’s population would peak this century.
“This is a big change from UN projections from 10 years ago, when they said there was about a 30% chance that world population would reach its highest point in the 21st century and stop growing,” he said.
Tom Cassidy, a mathematics professor at Bucknell University, told The Associated Press that a recent study he co-authored in the journal Demography also calculates that the population will likely peak by the end of the century.
According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the earlier-than-expected population peak is due to several factors, including declining birth rates, especially in the world’s largest countries. China’s population is predicted to decline dramatically It is projected to increase from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
The report finds that globally, women are having one fewer child on average than they did in 1990, with more than half of countries and territories still below the average of 2.1 births per woman – the level needed to maintain a country’s population size without immigration.
About 20 percent of the world’s countries, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, have “very low fertility rates” — fewer than 1.4 children per woman — according to the report. China currently has just about one child per woman, Wilmoth said.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the report, Navid Hanif, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic Development, said the projection that the world’s population will be lower than expected in 2100 “represents a significant change from 10 years ago and has important policy implications for the sustainability of the planet.”
The report found that 63 countries and territories, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia, have already reached their population peak in 2024. This group is projected to experience a 14% total population decline over the next 30 years.
The report said 48 other countries and territories, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, are projected to see their populations peak between 2025 and 2054.
For the remaining 126 countries and regions (including the United States), India, In Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan, populations are expected to grow until 2054 and “may peak later in the century.”
The UN projects very rapid growth in nine countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia, with their populations set to double between 2024 and 2054.
While these differences are striking, Wilmoth said, “it’s important to understand that all populations are on a similar trajectory.”
“These differences arise because countries are at different stages of demographic change with longer life spans and smaller family sizes,” he said.
Wilmoth cited some other key findings in the report: Global life expectancy is rising again after the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2080, people over 65 will outnumber children under 18. Immigration will be a “major driver of future growth” in some countries. And gender equality and women’s empowerment could help counter population growth.
The world’s population has grown dramatically over the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to a projected 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, it has grown by roughly 2.5% to 8.2 billion.
Kathleen Mogelgaard, president and CEO of the Washington-based Population Research Institute, said Thursday’s new estimates underscore “growing population inequality around the world.”
He said more than 100 countries and territories have been identified whose populations have already peaked or will peak within the next 30 years, but many more have been shown to have populations that will continue to grow, many of them among the world’s poorest countries.
The UN’s Hanif said rapid population growth is likely to increase the scale of investment and effort needed to eradicate poverty and hunger, and ensure universal health care and education in countries facing severe economic, social and environmental challenges.
Conversely, countries with low birth rates and facing rapid population decline may need innovative policies to address the impacts on labor markets, social security and national security, he said.
Looking to the future, the report compares the world’s 10 most populous countries today with projections for the 10 most populous countries in 2100.
India tops both lists, followed by China, which had a much smaller population at the turn of the century. The United States currently ranks third, but by 2100 it will be overtaken by Pakistan and drop to sixth place, behind Nigeria in fourth and Congo in fifth.
Following closely behind the US in 2100 will be Ethiopia, Indonesia, Tanzania and Bangladesh. Brazil, currently the seventh most populous country, will drop to 12th place by the end of the century.
Wilmoth said no one knows what state the world will be in when global population peaks in the 2080s, and it will likely be only a small portion of the world’s population, “not necessarily the largest or decisive portion.”
“It’s our actions and the choices that really matter,” Wilmoth said.
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Michael Schneider contributed to this report from Orlando, Florida.