Such aid could be risky, Havren said, given China’s continued dependence on exports to the West. “China needs to be careful,” she says. “But the bigger risk is that Russia loses the war. In China’s view, if Putin loses, he loses to the West and the United States. And China doesn’t want that.”
For China, there are other benefits to helping Russia continue the war in Ukraine, especially in terms of lessons Russia can learn.
“For China, the Ukraine war is almost like a giant laboratory experiment,” Ivanov said. “We can see what will happen if a conflict over Taiwan leads to global isolation. I think the Chinese military has definitely learned lessons from Russia and its Ukraine operations, but it is important to understand that Chinese economic policy planning also a person [who are learning] What will happen if a major power becomes globally isolated and is subject to sanctions like Russia? ”
Western reaction
If China has made it clear that it sees Russia as a key ally in its conflict with the West, many Western governments will respond fully and begin to see China and Russia as part of the same threat. It has become.
Last week, British police charged three men, including a former Royal Marine, with spying for China under the National Security Act. Meanwhile, China is increasing its claims in the South China Sea, sending coast guard and navy vessels to engage in water cannon firefights with Philippine vessels over disputed shoals.
As Russia ties its economy to China, Western countries, including the United States and Europe, are doing everything in their power to sever all ties. The European Union has called on member states to “risk” economic relations with China over the next three years. The US talks about “uncoupling.”
As tensions between the US and China continue to rise, particularly over key technologies in artificial intelligence, Microsoft is reportedly asking up to 800 employees in China if they would consider leaving the country. ing.
“If you look at the picture, there’s an all-out economic war, an all-out technology war, an all-out political war, with spy wars, intellectual property theft basically going on unabated, and China is fighting an all-out war. We’re proposing an alternate world system and, of course, a war for allies and proxies,” says Auslin.
For some analysts, such as Ivanov, the outcome of war is inevitable. “What we are currently experiencing is a transition to a multipolar world, and it is a very chaotic transition. Whether we like it or not, this kind of US-led Western order will dominate. We are moving into an era of multilateral competition that will be very disruptive for many years to come.”