China’s population will be more than halved by 2100, according to dramatic predictions from the United Nations.
Staggering projections suggest that the economic powerhouse’s population will grow from 1.42 billion today to 634 million by the end of the century.
China’s unfolding demographic “disaster” is causing panic around the world, with many countries depending on China’s massive manufacturing output.
Birth rates have fallen to their lowest levels on record due to a decades-long one-child policy, and Beijing’s efforts in recent years to encourage women to have more children have failed.
MailOnline has today produced a fascinating graph showing the UN’s projections for the population of every country between now and 2100.
As well as capturing China’s decline, the report also shows that African countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola are both projected to quadruple in size.
Our fascinating time-lapse graphs reveal how each country’s population has changed since 1950, including the moment India overtook China to claim the title of the world’s most populous country (1.44b).
Combined, the two countries account for more than a third of the world’s population.
According to UN projections, India and China are likely to hold the top spot for the next 76 years, but China’s population is expected to plummet to below 1 billion by the late 2060s.
This is equivalent to the Asian country losing more population than the current population of the United States in about 35 years.
By 2100, China’s population is projected to fall by more than 55% from its current level, to about 790 million, to about 630 million.
China’s population fell for the second consecutive year last year as decades of a one-child policy led to record low birth rates.
The limit was raised to two in 2015 and then completely abolished in 2021, but Beijing has failed to encourage women to have more children.
Experts also blame the high costs of child care and low wages for failing to reverse the trend despite extended maternity leave, tax cuts for large families and a crackdown on “non-medical” abortions – measures that experts have previously warned could put women’s lives at risk.
President Xi Jinping’s final lifting of anti-COVID-19 restrictions has also been cited as a factor in the death rate soaring to its highest level in 50 years.
Meanwhile, India’s population will grow until the early 2060s, peaking at about 1.7 billion, before beginning to decline gradually (to 1.5 billion in 2100).
Within the next 20 years, Pakistan will overtake the United States and Indonesia to become the world’s third most populous country.
Pakistan’s population is expected to reach 385 million in 2053, far surpassing the United States’ 383 million. By 2100, Pakistan’s population will reach 511 million.
The UK, currently ranked 21st with a population of 67 million, is expected to fall out of the top 25 in the late 2040s, to be replaced by countries such as Kenya, Afghanistan and Sudan.
However, by 2100, the population is projected to reach 74 million, placing it 61st.
Meanwhile, the United States will drop from third to sixth place by the end of the century, with a population of 421 million.
The declining birth rate is the background to the “underpopulation” crisis, which Tesla billionaire Elon Musk is deeply concerned about.
In 2017, he warned that population was “accelerating towards collapse, and few people seem to notice or care”, and in 2021 he warned that civilisation would “collapse” if people didn’t have more children.
Developed countries such as the UK and the US are expected to continue to see falling birth rates, forcing them to rely more on immigration to support their ageing societies.
Musk claims that Japan, which is experiencing a declining population, could “completely disappear” if its low birth rate continues, and that Italy will “run out of people” if current trends continue.
The top 10 countries expected to have the highest population growth rates are all in sub-Saharan Africa, and together they are expected to grow by nearly 1 billion people.
The world’s least populous countries, many of which are islands, are projected to remain largely stagnant.
The tiny Polynesian island nation of Niue will have a population of fewer than 2,000 as of 2023, making it the world’s smallest country.
The United Nations projects Niue’s population will grow to just under 2,400 by 2100.