The team that finishes second in this group will face South Africa, the leaders of Group 2.
S. Rajesh
Australia lost to India by 24 runs at the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2024, so their chances of progressing to the semi-finals will depend on the result of their final group match between Bangladesh and Afghanistan. For Australia to qualify, Bangladesh need to beat Afghanistan by 62 runs or less if batting first (assuming a total of 140). If Bangladesh chases, Australia will have to reach 141 runs in at least 12.4 overs to finish the match at a higher run rate.
That means Bangladesh, currently with a languishing net run-rate of -2.489, need a big win on Monday night to surpass Australia’s -0.331. A win by 62 or more runs and chasing 141 runs in 12.3 overs would catapult Bangladesh into second place on the points table. (If Bangladesh tie the score and win by six runs, the chase would extend to 13.1 overs.) If Afghanistan score 160, Bangladesh can move ahead of Australia within 12.5 overs (if they win by 161), or 13.3 overs if they tie the score and win by six runs.
For Afghanistan, the math is much easier: a win would guarantee second place in the group and a place in the semi-finals, while a loss would see them eliminated, as a loss in the Super Over would only improve their NRR to -0.433, below Australia’s -0.331.
The team that finishes second in the group will face Group 2 leaders South Africa in an evening match on Wednesday at Tharubb, while India will take on England in the second semi-final in a daytime match on Thursday at Providence.
S Rajesh is the Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats