China and Russia will not attend peace summit, but unity is key to maintaining Western dominance
It’s been another bad week for Vladimir Putin.
He says he started the Ukraine war to limit Western expansion.
It’s accelerating rapidly, entirely due to his aggression.
In direct response to this unprovoked invasion, Ukraine was able to sign a 10-year security agreement with the US this week, which would be a bridge to NATO membership, although that is still a very long way off.
And Putin has failed to stop Western countries seizing $300bn (£237bn) worth of frozen Russian assets and using the interest to transfer $50bn (£39bn) worth of aid to Ukraine.
That must hurt.
Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations are also due to begin by the end of this month.
Amid mounting domestic challenges, Putin’s opponents are keeping up the pressure, traveling from the Adriatic coast to the Swiss mountains this weekend to continue their diplomatic efforts against his aggression.
Ukraine has announced that it will host a “peace summit” in Lucerne, but it may be disappointed by the turnout: out of the 160 countries invited, only 90 are expected to attend, most of them European countries.
Many of the so-called Southern Hemisphere countries are either not coming or are sending lower-level delegations than Kiev had expected.
They remain neutral, some persuaded by Russia’s false narrative, but many, tempted by cheap Russian hydrocarbons and diplomatic bribes from Moscow, see the faraway conflict only as a way to make money.
China has said it will be “almost impossible for us to take part in the conference” unless Russia joins on an equal footing.
Beijing has also profited greatly from the conflict, cashing in on cheap Russian oil and taking advantage of the unequal relationship.
But it is no exaggeration to say that this support forever exposed the falsity of one of the fundamental principles of Chinese foreign policy: that unprovoked aggression, let alone interference in the sovereign affairs of other countries, should never be tolerated.
For the West, the peace summit bodes well for mixed results. The G7 diplomacy in Bari was impressive, especially in overcoming differences over an agreement to use frozen Russian assets.
But the allies seem distracted and at odds as far-right forces, no doubt aided by Russian online interference, try to corner them at home.
Concerns are growing both about Trump’s increasingly likely reelection and about Macron’s decision to risk his entire fortune in a bold, even reckless, attempt to save the French Republic.
Putin’s recent military gains in Ukraine appear to be slowing: he has a numerical advantage when it comes to artillery and soldiers.
But in terms of quality, the West has an invincible advantage, so long as it remains united and is willing to use it.
Two and a half years after the war began, it remains an unresolved issue, and the current political outlook for the nation’s leaders is far from bright.