When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts Group of Seven leaders on Thursday at a luxury resort hotel overlooking the Adriatic Sea, she might be forgiven for thinking her guests are looking for shelter.
All the leaders except for Meloni himself are coming to the meeting embattled, beleaguered or in crisis — an unfortunate bout that speaks to the political turmoil sweeping across the Western world — and doesn’t bode well for the outcome of a conference already facing daunting challenges, from Russia’s war in Ukraine to China’s global economic competition.
British Chancellor Rishi Sunak is three weeks away from an election that is expected to oust his Conservative party from power, and French President Emmanuel Macron has called for early parliamentary elections after his Conservative party suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right in the European Parliament elections.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats also lost in those elections, and President Biden is in a tough fight against his predecessor, former President Donald J. Trump. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also faces growing discord within his Liberal Democratic Party and could lose his job this fall.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, facing a disillusioned public after more than eight years in office, spoke for other leaders when he lamented the rise of populism in Europe and the United States.
“We are seeing the rise of the populist right in almost every democracy around the world,” Trudeau said Monday. “It’s concerning when political parties choose to use anger, fear, division and anxiety as tools.”
Anxiety about the G7’s role is not new. The group’s share of global gross domestic product is declining. The leaders of China and Russia are conspicuously absent. (Russia was expelled from the G7 after it annexed Crimea in 2014 and left permanently in 2017.)
In a nod to the changing world, Meloni has invited top non-Western leaders to Italy, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Pope Francis.
Some of the leaders are carrying their own burdens: Mr. Modi was just elected to a third term but his party lost its majority in parliament; Mr. Erdogan was defeated in local elections. They won’t attend the main session, but some will meet separately with Mr. Biden and others, in what will be a reminder of how global power dynamics are shifting.
Domestic politics will likely infiltrate the G7’s activities in ways big and small, analysts and diplomats say. With Britain looming a vote that will form a new government, Sunak is unlikely to back down from making big promises on trade with China or sanctions against Russia. Instead, attending the summit may be seen as a farewell tour.
“If there is going to be a change of government, can they commit to anything?” said Agathe Desmarais, senior policy fellow and director of the geopolitics initiative at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London. “‘Wait and see’ will be the key word.”
Biden doesn’t have to face voters until November, but analysts say he too could be distracted by local races and personal matters, including the 2018 conviction of his son Hunter on three felony counts of lying on a federal firearms application.
To a lesser extent, domestic politics may also constrain Scholz and Macron, leaving them in a weaker position after the success of far-right parties in the European Parliament elections.
Rising populism could divide Western leaders on some issues and favor their arch rivals on others. Far-right parties tend to be hostile to free trade but friendly to China and less in favor of tough sanctions against Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. All of these will be major issues when the leaders meet Thursday in the coastal town of Fasano.
The Biden administration is pressing Europe to impose steep tariffs on Chinese exports of electric vehicles, batteries and semiconductors, as it did in May, and the administration is trying to rally support for secondary sanctions against Russia that would significantly increase pressure aimed at companies doing business in Russia.
But Desmarais said “the Europeans know that Trump could reverse Biden’s promises” and, given their weakened position, “if they sign the agreement there is a risk it will not be approved by Congress.”
After losing the European vote to far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, Macron dissolved France’s National Assembly and called a general election due on July 7. He will be president for the next three years but will be weakened regardless of the outcome and may be forced to share power with an opposition prime minister.
Political analysts have likened Macron’s roll of the dice to former British prime minister and current foreign secretary David Cameron’s fateful decision to hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU in 2016.
In Germany, Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats came third in the European Parliament elections, behind the opposition Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany, which won a landslide victory in the former East Germany. Mr Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and the Free Democrats, also fared poorly.
Mr Scholz is unlikely to call for new elections as Mr Macron did, but there is pressure to do so. Mr Scholz and his government are deeply unpopular and internal infighting has led to paralysis. German support is seen as crucial to any tariffs on China, a major electric car rival, and secondary sanctions against Russia.
Even before the political turmoil erupted, the West could not agree on what to do with the roughly $300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves frozen in Western banks. The White House initially wanted to confiscate the entire amount and use it to rebuild Ukraine, but European countries hesitated, fearing that such a move would destabilize the global financial system.
Now the G7 countries are considering a plan to give Ukraine $50 billion or so quickly by writing off frozen assets, then use the profits and interest to pay off the debt over time. This would replace the EU plan to just use the profits and interest for Ukraine. But disagreements remain over how such debt would be guaranteed if assets were returned or interest rates plummeted.
Diplomats praised Meloni’s attempts to reach out to the new leaders, but Peter Ricketts, a former British national security adviser, said it “confirms the legitimate sentiment that the G7 is now an old grouping.”
The most obvious winner in all of this may be Ms. Meloni herself, who also rose to power as head of a far-right party but has cultivated an image of herself as someone Europe’s centrist leaders can work with. She will be speaking for three days in Borgo Egnasia, a resort favored by celebrities such as pop star Justin Timberlake, who married actress Jessica Biel there in 2012.
Diplomats said despite bickering over trade with China and sanctions against Russia, the two leaders were united on the two big issues of the day: aid to Ukraine and President Biden’s efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Israeli-Gaza war.
“From a leadership perspective, this is a welcome change from a perhaps difficult domestic environment,” Ricketts said.