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Government leaders, defense officials and diplomats from around the world are gathering in Singapore this weekend for one of Asia’s largest security forums, amid rising tensions and competition for influence between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific region.
In recent years, Beijing has rapidly expanded its navy and strengthened its territorial claims over almost the entire South China Sea, resulting in increased direct conflicts with other countries in the region, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the United States and its allies have stepped up military drills in the region to underscore its “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” vision, designed to emphasize freedom of navigation in disputed waters, including the Taiwan Strait. China also claims sovereign territory over the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan and says it will not rule out using force to seize it.
Since territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea escalated last year, the administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken steps to build a new security alliance with Asian and Western nations and allowed more U.S. troops to be stationed at Philippine bases under a 2014 defense agreement.
President Marcos will open this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, with a keynote address on Friday.
President Marcos has already expressed concern this week about a new law issued by China that gives the Chinese coast guard the power to seize foreign vessels that “illegally enter China’s territorial waters” and detain foreign crew members for up to 60 days. The law also makes new reference to a 2021 legislation that allows the Chinese coast guard to fire on foreign vessels if necessary.
Eugene Tan, a professor of international law at Singapore Management University, said Philippine vessels were now frequently clashing with Chinese vessels and he was concerned that low-level conflicts could lead to escalation.
“I don’t think these countries really want war, but the concern with these skirmishes is that if there is a miscalculation, things could escalate very quickly and escalate into a show of force,” he said.
“And I think the last thing countries in the region need is to be on the brink of a regional conflict, especially as they focus on rebuilding after the pandemic.”
This year’s conference came just a week after China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan and imposed a mock blockade of the island following the election of a new government that does not accept Beijing’s claim that the island is Chinese territory.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be brought under its control, by force if necessary.
The United States, like many other countries, has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is required by its laws to provide it with the means to defend itself. It has called China’s military exercises “reckless.”
Bilateral contacts between the U.S. and Chinese militaries broke down in 2022 after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, infuriating Beijing.
Relations have been gradually improving in recent months, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, who are both attending the Shangri-La Dialogue, were due to meet on Friday before the forum began.
The two have spoken on the phone before, but this will be their first face-to-face meeting since in-person talks collapsed.
Tan said he was not expecting any breakthroughs from the meeting, but that direct contact between the two sides was important to “ease” tensions between the two countries.
“It’s probably too much to expect any concrete progress from the Shangri-La Dialogue,” he said. “The Shangri-La Dialogue actually offers an opportunity to take very incremental steps toward building trust and confidence.”
Austin is scheduled to address the forum on Saturday morning, while Don will speak on the final day, Sunday.
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Associated Press writer Shawardin Zain contributed to this report.
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Follow AP’s Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific.