Mark Stone US Correspondent
Every decision has both intended and unintended consequences.
The intended outcome of President Biden’s threat to halt some weapons deliveries to Israel is straightforward: to prevent Israeli forces from entering Rafah without a clear plan that can be provided to civilians. be.
But there are many unintended consequences.
The decision could come back to haunt President Biden both geopolitically and domestically.
Before we consider unintended consequences, there is an important point to make. That’s the danger of setting red lines.
Often they turn out to be flawed tools of geopolitical diplomacy.
What would happen if Prime Minister Netanyahu forced his way through the Red Line and invaded Rafah?
He probably has enough American weapons in storage to do that.
Will Biden follow through on his threat to halt arms deliveries? Or will he relent? What message do both of these choices send broadly?
It gives us unexpected results. First, regional influences:
- Could there be more civilian casualties? If Prime Minister Netanyahu continues with Operation Rafah, but the supply of US-made weapons (so-called smart bombs) dwindles, he will use less sophisticated “dumb bombs.” This could result in even more civilian casualties.
- What message does it send to the region? The possibility that the United States will be seen as abandoning Israel (even if not in the way Biden says it is) will not be lost on countries around the world. That suggests that America is unstable in its alliances. For months, Biden has ignored calls to limit arms supplies. Now it’s a U-turn. Gulf states are already concerned about the stability of the United States as an ally. They will agree with his announcement last night, but the broader message it sends will resonate.
- Will that encourage Iran? Restricting weapons to Israel’s oldest ally in the Middle East at a time of grave crisis is seen by some as a gift to the Iranian government.
- What impact will this have on ceasefire negotiations? It is natural for Hamas to view this decision as weakening Israel and hold up the ongoing negotiations in order to achieve more.
There are also domestic political implications.
These were spelled out by the president’s opponent, Donald Trump, who said, “What Biden is doing regarding Israel is shameful. If Jews voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. “They have completely abandoned Israel and no one can trust them.” that. “
President Biden has already alienated key segments of the electorate with his existing Gaza policy.
By explicitly supporting Prime Minister Netanyahu, he has angered key Arab American states such as Michigan, which he needs to win in November. Additionally, students (many of whom would be natural Biden voters) are claiming that they can’t vote for him now and that “Joe Genocide” is their cry.
Now, the weapons announcement risks alienating Jewish American voters as well. Many are deeply angered by what they see as an abandonment of the Jewish state.
His lame claims that he still supports Israel in defense will turn off many voters. They only see the headlines.
Let’s also remember that nearly every Republican opposes any measures he would pull to rein in Israel. All they want is clear support for Israel.
But more than that, a significant number of Democrats are worried about America restricting arms to Israel. Only the party’s progressive left supports his move.
This is a dangerous political situation, with elections just six months away.