It’s been about a year since Ukraine began final preparations for its much-touted spring counterattack against Russia.
The objective was to break through the Russian lines and retake large areas of occupied territory. However, despite a surge of military support from Western countries, the counterattack did not live up to expectations, and Ukraine was unable to push back Russian forces.
Since then, our military analyst Sean Bell said, Ukraine has had an “incredibly solid defense,” but there have been long delays in passing a multibillion-dollar aid package for Kiev by the U.S. Congress. He said it was a “huge blow”.
“Ukraine has lost its front-line position and Russia has momentum. That is affecting Ukrainian morale and costing lives,” he explains.
So will the US decision to provide $60 billion in military aid turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor? This is one of the topics Bell covered on his Red Matrix podcast this week.
Russia could move forward this summer
According to Bell, momentum is essential in war, and Russia has enough momentum to exploit Ukraine’s highly publicized arms shortage to target energy infrastructure, cities and front lines. It is said that there is.
Bell said that despite the heavy casualties on the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin would want to seize the opportunity to inflict further losses on Ukraine “before U.S. military aid materializes.” Ta.
“With increasing evidence that Russia is preparing a major summer offensive, many military analysts believe that Russian advances in key sectors of the front are likely to be repeated this summer. “There is,” he says.
President Putin’s long game
According to Bell, President Putin is preparing for a long war that will eventually reduce Western support for Ukraine.
“Russia has more soldiers, is tripling the size of its defense industrial base to create a sustainable arms supply, and can finance its wars through massive sustainable oil revenues,” he said. explains.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is “critically dependent” on Western aid.
Despite the contrast in military power, Bell does not foresee a Russian strategic breakthrough. Success on the Moscow battlefield is “not a foregone conclusion.”
He points to recent comments by Volodymyr Zelensky, who said Western allies could protect Ukraine in the same way they protected Israel from the recent Iranian attack.
“Why not give Ukraine the same level of support?” Bell says.
Western hesitation emboldens Putin
Western countries “have the military power to stop a Russian invasion in its tracks,” Bell said, but so far they have been unable to do so due to escalating Russian rhetoric.
But the longer he “accepts” Russia’s actions, he added, the more emboldened Putin will become and become “a more dangerous threat to the West in the coming years.”
Despite massive U.S. military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky and his forces are likely to have a “very difficult spring and summer,” Bell said.