Five months into the Israel-Gaza war, Biden’s policy and message on the crisis are widely and correctly seen as confusing. His administration is reckless in its inability to influence the Israeli government, and it appears hypocritical to talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza while supplying large quantities of supplies to the country that produces it. Biden himself has been criticized as weak and stubborn.
It’s time for Biden to reset both his policies and his messaging. Conveniently, on Thursday night he will have the attention of the entire Congress and millions of Americans. State of the Union addresses typically tout accomplishments, not break new ground. But if Biden seizes the opportunity, what he thinks should be done to alleviate the humanitarian disaster, how he thinks the war should end, and the subsequent establishment of Palestinian rule in Gaza. You will be able to accurately explain to domestic and international audiences how you envision this.
Several government officials I spoke to said domestic dissatisfaction with Israel’s scorched-earth bombing campaign is growing, both for the devastation it is causing Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and for pushing Biden into a political corner. He admits that things are starting to boil over.
For months, the White House believed that the anger among progressives, as well as Arab and Muslim Americans, was limited and politically manageable. But in recent weeks, calls for Biden to change course have come from progressives like Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) to Biden confidant Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware). It has spread to centrist groups such as Mr. Coons recently called for an end to aid to Israel if it launches a ground offensive in Rafah, in southern Gaza, where more than 1 million civilians live in tents.
With no end to the war in sight, the White House is taking steps toward a clear break with the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the election approaches. On Monday, Vice President Harris called for an “immediate ceasefire” for six weeks, calling the situation in Gaza “inhumane” and a “humanitarian catastrophe.” Harris also met in Washington this week with Netanyahu’s chief rival, Benny Gantz, to press for a “credible” humanitarian plan before the ground operation in Rafah.
Biden’s big speech resetting US policy on the Israel-Gaza war will at least address how to end the humanitarian crisis, how to end a major military operation (while recovering hostages), and how to respond. Three key issues will need to be addressed. He then establishes a Palestinian-led government in Gaza.
To be fair, the Biden team is working hard on all of these issues, but mostly behind the scenes. What you see in public is not encouraging.
On the humanitarian side, the United States has a moral and national security interest in exerting influence over Egypt and Israel to prevent food and medical supplies from being denied to civilians. The Biden administration was heavily criticized last week for engaging in political theater after it dropped some 38,000 meals in northern Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of people are at risk of starvation.
The White House has said it is considering establishing maritime shipping routes. But even that is just a drop in the ocean of needs. Having allies deny food to 2 million hungry people is a terrible way to fight extremism.
Regarding the fighting, the Biden team said it wants Israel to switch to targeted operations targeting high-ranking operatives, while also negotiating a temporary ceasefire. But it is clear that Netanyahu will not halt large-scale ground operations completely unless Biden applies serious pressure. Hamas must release all hostages in exchange for a cessation of fighting. But only the United States has the influence to advance this outcome.
Looking ahead to the postwar era, Biden’s top diplomats are working with local governments to create a roadmap for the future, but again, it’s happening behind the scenes. Mr. Biden should publicly explain how a Palestinian security force other than Hamas can be organized to take control of Gaza, and how the United States will help make that happen.
Some experts have even suggested that Biden should go to the Israeli parliament and use his popularity among Israelis to defy Prime Minister Netanyahu and persuade him to change course. This idea ignores the fact that while Israelis do not like Prime Minister Netanyahu, they overwhelmingly support the war effort. Gantz, like Netanyahu, is hawkish on the “eradication” of Hamas and the attack on Rafah.
By focusing his message on Americans, Biden will be freed from the need to steer Israeli politics. His job as president is to communicate to the American people a clear strategy based on American interests, including supporting Israel but not turning a blind eye to the humanitarian catastrophe it is wreaking.
Biden’s mission in this State of the Union address is to attack protesters and Netanyahu, even if it means spilling fake blood on Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s car. But at least Mr. Biden will show the American people and the world that his administration intends to shape events, not be shaped by them.