So far in 2020, Mr. Biden is almost twice as unpopular as Mr. Trump, as measured by the difference between his approval and disapproval ratings. 43% of Americans say the president’s policies have hurt them personally (only 18% say they have helped), he faces double-digit disapproval on every issue, and 86% say the president will He answered that he was too old for his term.
Many Republicans look at this and say, “There’s no way Biden can win.”
Yes, he can. If you don’t believe me, Senator John Fetterman, I have three words for you.
Pennsylvanians demonstrate in 2022 that Americans will vote for a Democrat with a stroke. During the campaign period If they don’t like the Republican alternative. And while Biden is the most unpopular president in poll history, Trump is just as unpopular. In November, millions of Americans will choose between two candidates they hate. President Trump wants people to feel less hateful towards him. Yes, Biden is very vulnerable, but Trump will have to make a concerted effort to exploit that vulnerability and attract Haley voters and skeptical swing voters who are very likely to decide the election. not.
The problem Mr. Trump faces is not the “Never Trump” voters who did not support him in the past and who will not vote for him now under any circumstances. That’s the “No More Trump” voters, who like his policies and may have voted for him before, but don’t like the way he’s behaved, especially after the 2020 election, and don’t like his behavior in the primaries. He is an American who supported Haley. The former group is not convincing. The latter may not.
But Trump has to go out and convince them. He now needs to realize that the party is not united. Republican voters are largely divided into the dominant MAGA faction, which makes up about two-thirds, and the non-MAGA faction, which makes up about one-third. Trump cannot regain the presidency without recruiting non-MAGA Republicans to his side. But 53% of non-MAGA Republicans in Iowa, 57% in South Carolina and 65% in New Hampshire say they won’t vote for Trump in November, according to a Fox News voter analysis.
Fulfilling even a fraction of that promise could cost him the White House. Haley received 2,873,491 votes in this year’s Republican primary. In 2020, Trump lost by just 42,918 votes in three battleground states: Georgia (11,779 votes), Wisconsin (20,682 votes), and Arizona (10,457 votes). A similarly small number of votes could mean the difference between defeat and victory in 2024.
One challenge in introducing them is that in 2016, with the Supreme Court on the ballot, many Trump-skeptical Republicans voted for him. Well, thanks to his success in securing a 6-3 conservative majority, the Supreme Court is no longer the driving issue it was for these Republicans.
This much is certain. The election is so close that President Trump cannot afford to lose any votes. Attacking Haley’s supporters as “RINOs” may swoon over his MAGA base, but it won’t help him win the presidency. Nor does she boast on Truth Social that “Nikki Haley was arrested in record-breaking fashion last night” or belittle her voters as “radical left-wing Democrats.” He needs to take his victory in stride and make a concerted effort to win over the votes of Republicans who did not support him in the primary.
He also needs to attract independent voters who don’t like him, even though they like how his policies have improved their lives. The reason he lost in 2020 is that he spent most of his time feeding his base instead of trying to expand it. He needs to persuade Americans and bring them into his own coalition rather than drive them away. Biden’s disastrous presidency means voters skeptical of Trump may be willing to take a fresh look at the former president, but only if Biden asks for it.
How does he do that? Trump needs to convince them that his second term is a return to competence, not chaos. He will use the presidency not for revenge, but to rebuild our country. He needs to choose a vice president who is not someone who confirms the worst fears of many Republicans and who has broad appeal to all wings of the party. And he has shown that he understands why some are skeptical about putting him back in the White House, assuring them that their concerns are unfounded and that he is working in their own interests. You must give permission to vote.
Biden is weak and firmly supported by Trump’s hardcore MAGA base. However, MAGA voters are not going to decide this election. Haley may be out of the race, but her voters and those who did not support Trump could decide the election.