A Mile End Institute poll shows Sadiq Khan is on track to win an unprecedented third term as mayor. The conflict could wind down in the coming weeks. Due to low voter turnout in 2021, the results were closer than polls predicted. Right now, elections are being fought under the post-first-post system.
Few will bet on Mr Khan’s defeat, but the mayor’s trump card is not that voters approve of his performance, but rather that in London (where Labor currently has a 35-point lead over the Conservatives) It is worth remembering that the party is popular. 45% said they were “dissatisfied” with Khan’s performance.
Older white Londoners and those living in the suburbs are particularly unimpressed. Ures’ extension angered many.
In the final stages of the campaign, the mayor needs to present a persuasive prospectus that convinces a coalition of voters that he deserves re-election. Mr Khan has come under attack from Islamophobia in recent days, but is representative of the capital’s diverse population.
But while high-profile initiatives such as universal free school meals may be sound retail policy, they risk distracting from pressing issues.
A spate of knife-related incidents has left voters worried about an increase in crime. The lack of affordable housing continues to be a major concern for young families who are fleeing the capital in droves.
Last year, the mayor’s team announced that there would be up to 11,000 fewer affordable homes due to funding cuts. Many are feeling the effects of cost-of-living pressures and are employed in precarious labor markets. Transport for London is in financial trouble.
There is a lack of capital budget needed to initiate further infrastructure development.
The most important issue is the state of London’s economy post-Brexit, where growth and productivity have stagnated alongside strong plans to accelerate the green transition and net zero.
Capital cities need to secure their future by better spreading prosperity to disadvantaged communities, while leveraging the benefits of high-value services. To achieve this, closer cooperation is needed between city hall and each ward.
Moreover, Mr. Khan is in dire need of a more constructive relationship with the central government. The Mayor must negotiate a new devolution settlement with Whitehall to secure the powers and funding needed to deliver London’s long-term prosperity.
Professor Patrick Diamond is Director of the Mile End Research Institute at Queen Mary University of London.