Stephanie Luke analyzes the UK in Redfield & Wilton’s latest ‘Changing Europe’ poll. He stressed that if the SNP focused too much on independence, it would struggle to retain the Westminster seats it currently holds.
Redfield & Wilton’s Brexit Tracker poll on the UK in a changing Europe can be found here and the data table can be downloaded here.
The Scottish National Party made significant gains across Scotland in the 2019 general election, with former party leader Nicola Sturgeon saying the country had sent a “clear message about a second independence referendum”. Two things have changed since then. Firstly, Sturgeon is no longer the leader of the party. Secondly, the SNP is starting to struggle in the opinion polls. The only thing that hasn’t changed is the pressing issue of Scottish independence and the level of public support for it.
Opinion polls show that support for Scottish independence remains high, with 53% of Scots currently supporting the idea, although it has fluctuated since 2019. The issue remains a priority for SNP members, with the party’s conference in October 2023 announcing that the SNP would “immediately begin independence negotiations with the UK government if it wins a majority of Scottish seats” in the next parliament. The motion received overwhelming support. election.
However, SNP leader and Prime Minister Humza Yousaf appears to have reversed his stance. Mr Yousaf said in an interview last week that this would happen if the SNP won. number one Win a seat for one of Scotland’s political parties in the next general election – in contrast to Majority – The party will “use this as a mandate to begin negotiations with a future UK government on how to give independence a democratic impact”..
The policy cuts are likely an acknowledgment by Yousaf that his party faces defeat in the next election. While it is true that the SNP may fall short of a majority, it is still likely to win the majority of Scotland’s Westminster seats, with the latest polls showing the party is on track to win in 40 constituencies. is suggested. Although it remains unclear how many seats the SNP will lose, it may be time for cautious optimism.
Yet other polls suggest the SNP could lose 24 of 43 seats. SNP Westminster voting intentions have declined since May 2023, at least in part thanks to Labour’s resurgence in Scotland. Given the closeness of seats in Scotland, small changes in the vote share could make a big difference to the final result.
Humza Yousaf is also less “popular” with voters than his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon, with SNP membership steadily falling from a peak of 125,000 in 2019 to just under 70,000.
As things stand, the SNP is likely to win most, but not a majority, of Scotland’s Westminster seats. Even if it was just a gaffe, Mr Yousaf’s change in language will allow the SNP to argue that it has a mandate to continue pursuing independence in this case.
The SNP must also take into account the fact that achieving independence will not be easy. In 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament could not hold a second independence referendum without Westminster’s approval. Neither the Conservatives nor Labor support an independence referendum in Scotland, so it is unclear how a legal vote would be held.
With no clear path to independence in sight, the issue has become less important to Scottish voters, who are prioritizing more pressing issues such as the cost of living. Throughout 2023, data from the Scottish Election Survey found that the economy and health were seen as the most important issues facing Scotland, ahead of Scotland’s constitutional future.
Redfield & Wilton’s Changing Britain in Europe poll confirms this, showing that SNP voters in 2019 believed the party’s policies on the economy and cost of living were extremely important in deciding who they would vote for in the general election. states that it is important. The latest poll shows Scottish independence as her third most important issue in terms of voting intentions.
| SNP voters (2019) | October 23rd | November 23rd | February 24th |
| 1 | Economy (69%) | Economy (62%) | Living expenses (77%) |
| 2 | Healthcare (66%) | Healthcare (60%) | Economy/Healthcare (65%) |
| 3 | Pension/tax/welfare (49%) | Environment (49%) | Scottish independence (48%) |
| Four | Scottish independence (48%) | Tax (44%) | Immigrants (42%) |
Among those who still plan to vote SNP, 55% say Scottish independence is a very important issue to them, but most still prioritize living costs (72%) and healthcare (62%). are doing.
However, this does not mean that the party will be completely wiped out. While the SNP may be concerned that Scottish independence is less important than it once was, Ipsos polling shows it remains the party most trusted by Scottish people on the issues listed above. be. – Managing the NHS, growing Scotland’s economy and tackling the cost of living crisis.
By focusing on broader issues, including but not limited to independence, the party could attract more voters. However, focusing solely on independence is unlikely to succeed in the next general election.
There is also a risk that the party will lose valuable ground to Scottish Labor. Labor is gradually gaining popularity among Scottish voters, increasing confidence in its policies on the NHS and economy.
While the independence issue persists and support for independence remains fairly stable, an independence-focused strategy is not the way to cling to the 43 Westminster seats the SNP currently holds. The party’s electoral fortunes depend not only on its independence but also on its commitment to more pressing issues of public concern, such as the livelihood crisis and health care costs.
By Dr Stephanie Luke, British researcher in a changing Europe.