CIA Director William J. Burns presented a U.S. “bridging” proposal to Israel and representatives from Qatar and Egypt, who act as mediators with Hamas, in Paris on Friday, according to Israeli sources familiar with the negotiations. Behind the renewed US pressure is concern that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly deteriorating.
The US plan calls for the release of 40 Israeli hostages, most of them women and elderly men. This would be accompanied by a suspension of fighting for at least 40 days to allow for a large new flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Negotiators are scheduled to visit Qatar on Monday for another round of talks, during which Qatari and Egyptian officials could present details to Doha-based Hamas representatives.
At issue is a sharp disagreement between Israel and Hamas over the number of Palestinian prisoners of war who will be released at the same time as the Israeli hostages. Israel is willing to accept a 3:1 ratio to release more than 100 Palestinians. Hamas initially launched what Israeli authorities called an “absurdly large-scale” campaign against virtually all Palestinians, including thousands of prisoners of war, many of whom Israel considers terrorist killers. ‘ made the request.
The issue of prisoners has been the main sticking point in hostage negotiations in recent weeks.Hamas maybe Israeli sources believe they are prepared to take in hundreds of prisoners, not thousands. However, bridging this gap will not be easy.
According to knowledgeable Israeli sources, Mr. Burns’ proposal has three main elements. Although each item still has intricate details, the basics are clear.
The first step would be to significantly expand humanitarian assistance during the cessation of hostilities. That would include more aid trucks, more shelters for displaced Gazans, reopening bakeries and other commercial food sources, and efforts to rebuild shattered infrastructure. Providing safety for aid and relief workers will remain a major challenge. Armed groups are attacking trucks entering Gaza and disrupting the delivery of goods. But Israeli authorities hope the theft will decrease once supplies become more plentiful. The second part of Mr. Burns’ formula is a plan for a limited and gradual return of Palestinians to their homelands during the ceasefire period. Negotiators will carefully assess the terrain before agreeing on details, as Israel is concerned that the northern region remains too dangerous to easily pass through.
The third element is the prisoner release method, which is of symbolic importance to both sides. One interesting question is whether Marwan Barghouti, who led the first and second intifadas more than 20 years ago and is widely seen as the man who could best unify the Palestinian people after the war, will be included in the release document. The question is whether or not.
a A hostage release plan would reduce the heat, but it would not end the war. Israel remains determined to continue the conflict, with timeouts in between, until Hamas is defeated, if not completely destroyed. Israel’s “next day” plans remain vague and, in the view of Biden administration officials, highly unrealistic.
One detail of the hostage release negotiations shows how far the conflict is from its final stage. Hamas demands that Israeli forces withdraw to the Gaza border during the cease-fire period. Israelis fear that if they do so, Hamas will regain control of the territory. Israel is unlikely to accede to that request.
The deal Mr. Burns is trying to broker will not solve any of the big problems with Israel and the Palestinians. But it would at least prevent the dire situation in Gaza from getting even worse. And a pause in fighting could pave the way for other bolder proposals from the United States and its allies, paving the way to a real solution.