OPINION: Donald Trump defeats Nikki Haley in South Carolina.she should keep fighting

Editor’s note: CNN contributor Jeff Duncan served as Georgia’s lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2023. He is a former professional baseball player and author of “GOP 2.0: How the 2020 Election Can Lead to a Better Way Forward for America’s Conservative Party.” The views expressed here are his own.read more opinion On CNN.

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Nikki Haley’s loss in the South Carolina primary was not a desirable outcome for her or the Republicans who wanted to make a different choice than former President Donald Trump, but it was a fatal outcome for her campaign. It shouldn’t be meant as a declaration. Shortly after voting closed Saturday night, CNN predicted the former South Carolina governor would fall short of Trump. The result came as a surprise to no one, as Trump had a 30-point lead in pre-primary polls, according to a FiveThirtyEight average.

While delegate numbers and polls may not be on Haley’s side for now, believe it or not, many other numbers are. Here we will introduce just a few.

First, there’s money. Haley raised $24 million to $19 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, more than Trump. This figure was more than double the amount she raised in her third quarter. In January 2024, as the rest of the Republican field sifts through, Haley’s fundraising once again exceeds Trump’s $9.8 million to $8.8 million.

Admittedly, Trump started the year with more cash on hand than Haley ($33 million to $14.5 million), but in the fourth quarter his campaign finance account was used for legal fees and payments to his estate. The company spent $23 million. Since then, he has been assessed nearly $500 million in civil legal penalties ($355 million plus interest for fraudulently inflating his net worth, plus $83.3 million for a defamation judgment related to sexual assault allegations). The jury found him responsible for the sexual abuse, although he denied it). President Trump plans to appeal both rulings, creating a headache for a candidate who has always refused to speak candidly about his personal finances.

Bottom line: Campaigns usually end when they run out of money, but especially in the situation Haley is expected to find herself in soon, with at least 10 big-ticket fundraisers scheduled in the days after S.C. do not have.

Next is the age factor. President Trump (77) and President Joe Biden (81) are 158 years old together. Nearly six in 10 voters (59%) think both leading candidates are the right age for the job, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll. Father Time is undefeated and neither is getting any younger. At 52, Haley, on the other hand, is a quarter of a century younger than both of them and much closer to the median American age of 38.9. She will be the first fully Gen

Biden’s verbal stumbling has been well-documented (most recently, he confused the president of Egypt and Mexico at a press conference to address concerns about his mental health), but Trump has recently accused him of money and confused Haley with the former president. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is trying to shift the blame for the events of January 6, 2021, and confuse the leaders of Hungary and Turkey.

The third is Super Tuesday. Of the 16 states that will vote on March 5, 11 will have more than just registered Republicans. Put another way, about two-thirds of the 874 delegates nominated for Super Tuesday will be in states with at least semi-open primaries.

Mr. Trump and his allies have complained about whether independents can compete in the Republican primary. Ahead of last month’s New Hampshire primary, he complained that state law allows “Democrats to vote in Republican primaries.” Although this claim was false, it provides valuable insight into Trump’s worldview and that his appeal beyond his base is very limited. In 2020, low support for Biden among floating suburban voters cost Republicans dearly. A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that nearly two-thirds of suburban Americans have a negative opinion of Trump, giving Biden a lead over Trump. . 16 points among registered suburban voters.

Finally, and most importantly, the world situation. The suspicious death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has revealed the importance of American leadership in the world. Biden’s words have not yet translated into serious action, although he has promised “catastrophic” consequences if Navalny dies in prison. Not to be outdone, Trump likened Navalny’s death to a legal dilemma of his own making. President Trump declined to specifically blame Russian President Vladimir Putin.

To her credit, Haley took aim at both Trump and Putin, accusing the former of emboldening the latter. She called President Trump’s encouragement of Russian invasions of NATO countries that are not meeting their defense spending obligations “chilling.” “Vladimir Putin is not cool. This is someone we don’t want to hang out with. This is someone we want to be friends with,” Haley said in words you’d never expect to hear from President Trump’s mouth. It’s not.”

There’s only one likely exit from the Trump vs. Biden sequel, and that’s Haley. In the 2016 South Carolina primary, there were still six potential Republican candidates.

There’s no reason for Haley to stop now. Even if Trump fever doesn’t catch on in time for 2024, there will always be 2028, when Republican voters wake up to what may have been and may still be.