- Breed is expected to lose to no-nonsense former mayor pro tem Mark Farrell.
- Farrell promised to clean the streets and arrest drug users.
- In ranked choice voting, Breed could lose to Levi Strauss successor Daniel Lurie.
San Francisco Mayor London Breed is on track to lose his re-election bid to a serious rival who promises to clean up the city.
The incumbent mayor, 49, suffered a poor showing in the latest San Francisco Chronicle poll, which revealed he will lose the job to Mark Farrell, 50, who previously served briefly as mayor.
In a close three-way race, Farrell received 20% support, Breed 18% and Levi Strauss’ successor Daniel Lurie 16%.
The candidates were close, but due to San Francisco’s adoption of ranked-choice voting in mayoral elections, Mr. Breed received far fewer second-choice votes than Mr. Farrell or Mr. Lurie, which meant he would face an uphill battle. right.
Ranked choice voting uses a round-based system where if no candidate reaches 50% support, the lowest ranked candidate is eliminated and its vote goes to the voter’s second choice until a majority is reached. .
Mr. Farrell has topped the polls because his campaign focuses on San Francisco’s struggling economy and the epidemic of street homelessness and overdoses.
Farrell, a former venture capitalist, served as mayor pro tem for six months in 2018 after being appointed as mayor following the death of Mayor Ed Lee.
Farrell did not seek re-election after serving as mayor pro tem, and Breed won the July 2018 election.
When he announced his candidacy for mayor in February 2023, he criticized the city’s response to Breed, who set a tough platform on street cleanliness since taking office.
“For the past five years, I’ve watched San Francisco fall apart,” he told the New York Times.
“Public safety has never been a greater concern. Conditions on our streets are worse than ever. Our local economy has collapsed. And we are a joke across the country. I have become a target.
“This mayor has completely exceeded our expectations.”
A self-described common-sense platform to turn the city around would “significantly” raise police ranks, lock up drug overdose survivors and empty dozens of homeless encampments. .
San Francisco’s economy has also plummeted in recent years as businesses flee rampant crime and homelessness across the city, and Farrell has proposed putting cars back on Main Street to revitalize the economy.
The latest poll shows Mr Farrell’s lead is within the margin of error, with 40% of voters saying they remain undecided.
But experts say Breed’s 18% approval rating means she is in “very serious trouble”, effectively placing her in third place on the ranking voting system. He said there was.
“Obviously we don’t want to draw too firm a conclusion given that there are a lot of voters who are still undecided,” said Jonathan Brown, president of Sextant Strategies and Research, which organized the poll. Ta.
“But…if this is the field of leading candidates right now, it certainly looks like Breed is in very, very deep trouble.”
More than a third of respondents said they ranked Breed last, including City Supervisor Ayesha Safai, who recorded 8 percent approval.
Thirty-five percent of voters ranked Breed last, compared to just 7% for Lurie and 6% for Farrell.
In a ranked-choice scenario, Lurie, who also runs an anti-homelessness nonprofit, would have edged out Farrell because he received the most second-place votes.
However, experts stress that it is too early to draw conclusions as there are still eight months until the election.
Breed’s lackluster polling extended to questions about her handling of city government, with a staggering 71 percent of voters disapproving of her job performance.
By contrast, only 5% of voters said they had a strong opinion of her performance, and 23% had some approval.
The poll also found that 61% of San Francisco residents feel their quality of life is “just right” or “poor.”
More than two-thirds of respondents said they disapproved of Breed’s response to five key issues: protecting residents and businesses from crime. Provide shelter for the homeless. Keep your neighborhood clean. Addressing the city’s overdose crisis. Provide sufficient affordable housing.
Breed’s campaign claims she is turning the city’s problems around, citing a 7 percent drop in citywide crime last year as an example.
Maggie Muir, a political consultant for the campaign, told the Chronicle that the poll was positive, with 70% of respondents saying they felt safe or somewhat safe in their area. He said there are signs as well.
“Mayor Breed will continue to boldly lead our city’s recovery with a focus on economic revitalization and public safety,” Muir said.
“The election that Mayor Breed is currently focused on is her proposed ballot measures that will make our city safer, support our neighborhoods, and bring more investment and housing to our downtown.” The election is in a week.”
Muir claims that while Breed is trying to turn around the downtown area, she has watched the hub decline dramatically.
As the pandemic shut down Market Street thoroughfares to car traffic, many businesses, including CVS, Amazon and Whole Foods, closed their stores due to unchecked crime.
Once the city’s bustling economic hub, eerie images taken in January showed it largely deserted while many businesses were fenced off.
Mr Farrell has promised to bring businesses back to the city, and his campaign manager Jade Too said she was “encouraged” by his lead in the latest polls.
She noted that Farrell’s name recognition is much lower than Breed’s and that his campaign is “in its infancy.”
“It’s clear that voters have lost confidence in Mayor Breed’s ability to turn San Francisco around and are desperate for a candidate with a track record of effective leadership both inside and outside of City Hall,” Tu said.
“Voters supported Mayor Farrell’s vision and platform focused on creating a safer, cleaner and more vibrant San Francisco on day one of his administration.”