In a closed-door meeting with a bipartisan parliamentary group, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy showed exactly what he needed: a long-range ATACM-300 missile. He brought out a map showing Russian targets in occupied Crimea that ATACMS could attack. The attack will not liberate Crimea, but it will shake Russian confidence and boost Ukrainian morale at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he is in control.
President Biden has been reluctant to deploy ATACMS, and for good reason. The United States needs them for its own defense. And Biden doesn’t want the spiral with Russia to escalate. But nothing is more important to U.S. national security at this time than helping Ukraine thwart Russian momentum on the battlefield. And Ukraine has vowed to honor its promise not to launch U.S. weapons into Russian territory. There is no need to wait for legislation to be enacted. Send missiles.
Two events last weekend highlighted President Putin’s terrifying momentum. The death of heroic dissident Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prisoner of war camp shows that Putin is carrying out “unrestricted” attacks, as Russian insurgents like to say. Russia’s occupation of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine showed that Putin would sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers in a “flesh attack,” as President Zelenskiy put it.
Avdiivka is important not because of its strategic importance, but because the Ukrainian army lacked artillery and air defense equipment, a sign of its increasing vulnerability. The lack of air defense is of particular concern. Russian aircraft could drop precision bombs on Avdiivka at will. If Ukraine doesn’t get new air defense supplies soon, the threat could spread to cities across the country.
The Russian military is advancing with two great national resources: warm bodies and cold-blooded patience. This is how Russia has fought wars, from Napoleon to Hitler and up to the present day. “They’re crazy, they’re rampaging… tens of thousands of soldiers. That’s what they have,” Zelenskyy told a news conference. In contrast, Ukraine has struggled to protect its military, which he described as “our main weapon.”
“This war is now going Russia’s way,” warned a European ambassador who is one of the West’s wisest Kremlin observers. He recalled warning U.S. officials when the war began that “there will be 500,000 deaths before Russia stops it.” U.S. officials estimate that more than 300,000 people were killed and injured.
Putin is able to keep sending in troops not only because of Russia’s asceticism, but also because he has skillfully recruited troops from the poorest and most disadvantaged regions of the country. U.S. analysts say the overwhelming majority of the dead are ethnic minorities from remote regions such as Chechnya and Dagestan. Front-line soldiers will be paid three times the normal salary, and the families of dead soldiers will receive bonuses of more than $50,000, European ambassadors said. “The war brought a kind of prosperity to poor Russians,” he said.
Mr. Navalny’s death showed Mr. Putin’s calculating nature. He doesn’t care about elite public opinion. Because it doesn’t threaten his rule. He is undeterred by protesters laying flowers and holding small marches. “We can handle anything under a million,” a Kremlin official told European ambassadors a few years ago. The message, the diplomat told me, was that “thousands of protesters are a drop in the ocean.”
But even President Putin knows he cannot keep the killing machine running forever. That’s why Congressional support for continued military aid is so important. This year could buy Ukraine time to strengthen its defenses and protect its territory from attack, perhaps allowing it to resume attacks next year. For Ukraine, continuing the fight and deterring Russia is a victory of sorts.
One sign that the Kremlin is nervous is that Russian officials continue to rattle nuclear sabers. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Telegram that if the West tried to force Russia back from occupied Ukrainian territory to its “1991 borders,” Russia would use the “nuclear triad” to attack Kiev and Berlin. He said he would attack targets such as , London and Washington. Even for the Kremlin’s henchmen, it was an outrageous act of bullying.
This war is a test of character for the Western nations. Surprisingly, Europe is acting with admirable fortitude, at least compared to the United States. Mr. Biden has taken a firm stance so far, but now is the time to take further action.
As for Congressional Republicans willing to abandon Ukraine on the whims of former President Donald Trump, it’s especially sad for once-familiar figures like Sen. Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), who until this year was a rock-solid lawmaker. I can only feel it. Contents of the Munich Conference agreement to resist Russian aggression. He has become a living symptom of the corrosive effects of President Trump’s embrace.
One of the most moving images I brought back from Munich was shared by Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii). He described reports that Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines were checking their cellphones to find out what House Republicans would do about the military aid package. What do the soldiers huddled under Russian shells and bombs think of the members of Congress who are ready to abandon them?
Let’s hope House Republicans can find some backbone before the curtain of shame falls.