Indonesia’s transformation into a stable democracy over the past quarter century has been both surprising and unlikely.
In 1998, the country was on the brink of collapse due to a devastating financial crisis and protests that brought down the 32-year brutal and corrupt Suharto dictatorship. Ethnic and religious violence throughout the vast archipelago has sparked fears of balkanization or military repression.
Then, against the odds, the country’s entrenched elites responded to popular demands for reform, the military withdrew from political activity, and an era of open competitive elections ushered in. Although corruption and dysfunction persisted, the world’s fourth most populous country emerged as a rare bright spot for liberalism.
Dark clouds are gathering again. Indonesians are scheduled to vote on Wednesday to elect a new president to replace outgoing Joko Widodo. But the man expected to win, and the anti-democratic path that Mr. Widodo has set the country on, threatens many of the gains Indonesians have made.
The overwhelming frontrunner in the election campaign is Prabowo Subianto, a former army general under President Suharto who is believed to have been involved in human rights violations such as the abduction and torture of democracy activists during the anti-Suharto uprising. Mr. Subianto. . More than a dozen of them remain missing and are feared dead. Prabowo was never formally charged.
He has held the office of president ever since. Prabowo has been critical of democratic-era reforms, having previously advocated restoring the 1945 constitution, which removed checks on presidential power and abolished direct elections. Many critics fear he will return Indonesia to dictatorship.
Perhaps equally worrisome, Mr Prabowo’s chances have been eclipsed by Mr Joko, once a symbol of the country’s young democracy but who helped undermine institutions and the rule of law during his decade in power. It must have increased significantly. Despite this, he has an approval rating of around 80 percent, thanks in large part to the country’s strong economy, and will leave office after a maximum of two five-year terms.
Under Mr. Joko Widodo, many Indonesians have seen their lives substantially improved through expanded social assistance and the construction of airports, highways, ports and other much-needed infrastructure. I did. The economy is growing 5% a year, and Mr. Joko Widodo is trying to use Indonesia’s vast nickel reserves to entice electric car makers such as Tesla and China’s BYD to build factories in the country.
Voters want more. What is happening in Indonesia is emblematic of a worrying global trend in which countries that once championed liberal democracies, such as Narendra Modi’s India and Trump’s America, are allowing their decline. . Democracies do not die suddenly or in the shadows, but gradually and privately as elites undermine democratic norms and institutions for political expediency while a arrogant and forgetful public looks on. They are perishing right before our eyes.
After losing to Joko Widodo in 2014, Prabowo campaigned for President Trump in 2019, an overt supporter of nationalist populism and hardline Islamism despite being part of Indonesia’s oligarchy. I ran for office again. Suharto’s son-in-law — with questionable religious credentials. He blamed the elites and vowed to “make Indonesia great again.” After he lost again, he infuriated his supporters by denying the result. Several people were killed in the post-election violence.
But six months after the election, Mr. Widodo appointed Mr. Prabowo as defense minister and incorporated the far-right Gerindra party, led by a former general, into his ruling coalition in an apparent strategy to counter parliamentary opposition to the president’s economic policies. is. Mr. Prabowo’s star has once again risen, and in October last year he nominated Mr. Joko Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabumin Raka, 36, a first-term mayor of a small city, as his running mate. Indonesian law prohibits anyone under the age of 40 from becoming vice president, but the country’s Constitutional Court announced an exemption for existing officeholders like Gibran. The court’s chief judge is Mr. Joko’s brother-in-law.
Rather than being put off by this blatant meddling and whiff of nepotism, many voters seemed to perceive the hugely popular incumbent as having supported Mr. Prabowo, with opinion polls showing that the ticket between Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Gibran was gained an overwhelming lead. Prabowo is now telling voters that he will continue with Joko Widodo’s economic policies. He has tried to rebrand himself as a sarcastic elder statesman who does silly dances at rallies, but his inflammatory nature continues to surface at debates and campaign events.
More than half of Indonesia’s voters are under 40, and many voters are too young to remember Prabowo’s brutality during the Suharto era. Voters’ top concerns are economic issues, not human rights or civil liberties.
Mr. Joko Widodo, once a paragon of his country’s democratic values, has betrayed them. A former furniture manufacturer from the slums of Surakarta, he served as the city’s mayor and later Jakarta’s governor, building a reputation as a determined reformer of a notoriously corrupt system. That, and his popular appeal, propelled him to the presidency in 2014, leading the sycophantic Western media to dub him the Indonesian Obama.
But he leaves office with Indonesia’s democracy more fragile than at any time since the Suharto dictatorship. He has weakened the country’s independent anti-corruption commission, curtailed freedom of expression, criminalized sex outside of marriage, and overhauled the criminal code to give the government broad and unspecified powers to prosecute critics and dissidents. signed. He abolished patronage, was criticized for interfering in the internal affairs of rival parties, and allowed the military to play a greater role in civilian life.
Perhaps much of that can be attributed to the Game of Thrones-like nature of Indonesian politics: horse-trading, dynasticism, and the constant need to build and maintain a power base. Joko Widodo is the first president to come from outside the political and military elite since independence in 1945. Without such a support network, Mr. Joko Widodo has been able to appease and co-opt power brokers and rivals to ensure the passage and survival of his agenda and legacy projects, including his ambitious plan to build a new capital on the island of Borneo. I’ve been doing it.
These ambitions have strong appeal to voters. But nothing is guaranteed, especially when it comes to Mr. Prabowo. The Indonesian presidency has great powers, and while Prabowo may value continued campaigning, he is notoriously volatile and short-tempered. Who knows what he will do once he finally gets the prize he has been searching for so long. Even if Mr. Widodo’s governing practices continue steadily, it will mean a decline in democracy. Prabowo is likely to accelerate that.
Other large multi-ethnic democracies face similar threats. In India, Mr. Modi’s massive public works projects have boosted his popularity even as he has rolled back democratic rights. Militarism is in vogue in Brazil, as the horrors of the past military dictatorship fade from memory. And in the United States, Trump may once again challenge the presidency.
Prabowo is not a lock to win. He is running against Ganjar Pranowo, a former governor from Central Java, and Anies Baswedan, a former university president and former governor of Jakarta. So far, Prabowo has a large approval rating of around 50%. If they fail to secure a full majority on Wednesday, a runoff election between the top two candidates will be held in June.
A lot can happen between now and then. Let’s hope things work out for the world’s third largest democracy.
gordon laforge (@Gordon LaForge) He is a senior policy analyst at New America. He is a former Indonesia Fulbright Fellow and has worked as a journalist in Indonesia.
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