Opinion: Fierce competition for George Santos’ successor

Editor’s note: Lawrence C. Levy is director of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, a former opinion writer for Newsday, and a Pulitzer Prize finalist for his editorials on suburban politics and policy. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinions on CNN.

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Extensive media coverage from all over the world. Huge sums of money from deep-pocketed donors. A clash of ideologies over the most contentious issues such as immigration, abortion, guns, inflation, and even the Israeli-Hamas war.

And, of course, there’s the indelible stain of a man named George Anthony Devolder Santos.

3 names of new york^rd Voting this Tuesday in the Feb. 13 special election for the U.S. House of Representatives district could feature Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Maji Pilip, two candidates with very different political experiences and personal stories. It will be an interesting matchup of people. Add in the former congressman’s notoriety, and one would expect the race to replace him to garner more attention than most offseason contests.

But the development of this ferocious campaign remains astonishing in its intensity and interest. That’s because this race is about much more than determining the successors of indicted former congressmen or the suitability of specific candidates (Mr. Suozzi, a moderate from an Italian-American political dynasty, Pilip, a black Jewish Ethiopian who immigrated to the United States and served in the military (before coming to the United States).

Santos prompted the X post even after last week’s failed attempt to pass a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas by a single vote increased the urgency of the campaign for House Republicans.Do you miss it already?” – The contest is still It’s not just about winning additional seats.

The results bode well for the party’s prospects with moderate “float” suburbanites, the nation’s most decisive voting bloc, like those who control this New York district, which covers Nassau County and parts of Queens County. There is a possibility that it may be shown. The results also reflect how campaign strategies and tactics played out in dozens of battleground states across the country that will determine who gets the gavel in Congress and even the keys to the White House in November. It will show how it will develop.

As evidenced by the intensity of the race and the torrent of funds to Mr. Suozzi and Mr. Pilip (much of which came from outside the constituency), both national parties and their supporters have a strong interest in constituencies and their challenges. , and accept it as a leader that brings results far beyond its boundaries.

Both candidates have focused most of their attacks on each other, in ads and Thursday’s debate, on accusing the other of being extremists. That’s natural. That’s because people living in swing suburbs tend to avoid extremism of any kind. And both use an issue that seems to overshadow all other topics: immigration to make their point.

That’s not to say Suozzi, who held the seat for three terms, isn’t trying to rekindle abortion rights as an issue. He has had some success, according to polls and debate reports. A Newsday/Siena College poll released this week found that a majority of likely voters prefer his pro-life positions.

But Mr. Pilip spent considerable airtime blaming Mr. Suozzi and other Democrats for the border crisis, putting Mr. Suozzi on the defensive. A pro-Pirip super PAC is splurging $1.35 million on television ads that will air during Sunday’s Super Bowl. The 30-second spot shows footage of immigrants kicking two police officers in Times Square, while Suozzi claims (without providing evidence) that he is “soft on immigrants and tough on taxpayers.” ing.

Polls show that immigration-centered attacks have been successful in reducing his credibility on this issue.

And as if to justify the fears of many Republicans that Donald Trump would hurt “down-vote” candidates in suburban districts where he has performed poorly. The former president handed Mr. Suozzi a gift. President Trump called Suozzi a role as a moderate who would work across the aisle to “get things done” by rejecting a bipartisan bill addressing immigration to deprive President Joe Biden of a political victory. It gave them an opportunity to demonstrate their qualifications. At the same time, he painted Pilip, who he said opposed the compromise, as a “MAGA extremist.”

Another complicating issue for Democrats in this and other districts is the war between Israel and Hamas. The district has one of the highest concentrations of Jews in the U.S. House of Representatives, with an estimated 117,000 people. Pilip is an Orthodox Jew, a voting group that, like white evangelicals, has become reliably Republican. Could she increase her turnout by her religious affinity? And amid growing concerns among some Jews about young, progressive Democratic support for the Palestinians, Suozzi remains popular among the majority of the more liberal Jewish community, which tends to vote Democratic. Will we lose it?

Not only does Mr. Suozzi have to align Jewish Democrats and independents, who have traveled to Israel since Oct. 7 to show loyalty, but young progressives and yet another They also have to worry about losing the support of Democratic voters. There are 17,000 Muslims in the area. His success or failure could provide guidance to other suburban Democrats with large Jewish populations.

Reflecting the closeness of the race, Republican and Democratic donors turned on the spigot. And Mr. Suozzi is still expected to outpace Mr. Pilip, according to Federal Election Commission records, with total spending likely to reach $20 million, as some analysts have so far predicted. It seems that there is.

But in some ways, these spending don’t really help candidates. The race has remained within the margin of error since the start, according to a handful of polls published by reputable organizations.

None of these polls were conducted before Thursday’s lone debate, at least according to media reports, in which Mr. Suozzi was able to demonstrate significant experience and expertise on a variety of issues. As the New York Times’ Nicholas Fandos noted, Mr. Pilip, who has only served on the Nassau County Legislature for two years, has had “moments that seem particularly unseasonable for a congressional candidate in a major race.” .

But local Republicans were excited about her performance because she “didn’t back down” when she aggressively challenged the clarity of her positions (or lack of solutions). He said he was there. They say all she needs to do is show she can “stand toe-to-toe” with more sophisticated adversaries, pitting the moderate Mr. Suozzi against the unpopular Mr. Biden and the suburban swinger. felt the only thing left to do was continue trying to connect with the progressive wing of the party, which has proven to be unpopular. voters. They also believe, although with some legitimacy, that their “ground war” will overcome the Democratic advantage in advertising volume and support, as has been the case on Long Island over the past few election cycles. I felt I could do it.

In a glimpse of how a candidate in a battleground district would handle the top of his field, Suozzi criticized the president on border security and rejected even the idea of ​​asking Biden to campaign in the district, giving Biden a clear shot at how candidates would handle the top positions in their districts. He seems to be keeping a distance from him. Pilip said this week that she voted for Trump in 2020 and would welcome him to appear on the campaign trail, but she has not run any ads promoting the relationship. Neither standard bearer is particularly popular in the district, and the suburbs have been a particular problem for President Trump since 2020.

Another name that hasn’t surfaced much after Democrats’ initial efforts to garner support is Santos himself. Republicans hope once and for all that a victory removes the stain of collusion on his candidacy, even if it was inadvertent. Democrats hope enough voters will be wary of another relative unknown and not be too reminded of why this election was needed in the first place.