Thinking about what President Biden might do in his second term requires considering two very separate scenarios. When MAGA Republicans lead the House and can paralyze the Senate (even if they don’t hold a full majority), they oppose even the bills they say they will. They are want. That’s exactly what happened with the border dispute. If Republicans control the Senate, forget about confirming Biden judges and executive branch appointees. And Biden (don’t ask me what that’s based on!) and other members of his Cabinet will move forward with impeachment proceedings against anything that makes them angry. Trump’s second term will be disastrous, but Biden’s second term will be a three-ring circus with Republicans running the Capitol. Mr. Biden will have a difficult time just opening the government’s doors and preventing the country from defaulting on its debt and impeachment becoming the norm.
This leads to a second-term scenario in which Democrats hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, as they did in Biden’s first two years. If that happens, Biden will have to make a big decision (before Democrats go home) about whether to “go big” or “go bipartisan.”
“Bigger” would mean recognizing that our democracy suffers from structural flaws that go far beyond the MAGA movement. MAGA Republicans have learned how to turn minority-friendly rules into a tyranny for a predominantly white Christian party with a declining population. When Democrats are in power (even for a short period of time), if they look at the bigger picture, they will recognize the urgency of strengthening majority rule and protecting democracy.
That would almost certainly require amending, if not abolishing, the filibuster. If Democrats were that bold, they would seek D.C. statehood, reinstate the Voting Rights Act’s preclearance provisions, additional voting reforms (e.g., standardized early voting, nonpartisan redistricting), and significant It would be possible to achieve the goals of promoting democracy, such as reforming the Supreme Court (making ethics compulsory). rules and/or time limits).
In addition to these structural reforms, Biden may pursue other items not included in the Inflation Control Act., This includes broader subsidized child care, universal preschool, and tax reform (e.g., returning the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, narrowing the gap between earned income and capital gains rates, and enacting a surtax on the ultra-wealthy). etc.) are included. He could also enshrine abortion rights into federal law through legislation. And he may pursue comprehensive immigration reform that includes a permanent response to “Dreamers.”
Even with filibuster reform and a Democratic majority in Congress, not all of that will happen. But the end result will be a society that is substantially more democratic (smaller) and more economically and socially equal.
However, given Senate Democrats’ timidity and Biden’s own centrist leanings, Biden is likely to avoid filibuster reform, leaving open the option of “going bipartisan.” As he did in the first two years of his first term, Mr. Biden has chosen candidates such as Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. It will likely pursue a partial agreement with Republicans who supported the infrastructure deal. . (Notably, of the 19 Republican senators who voted in favor of the infrastructure deal, four have already left the Senate or plan to leave the Senate by the start of Biden’s second term, meaning that Republicans (It has shifted further to the right.)
Biden will need to craft his agenda with these allies in mind. In addition to keeping the government open and avoiding default, he will need to choose his battles carefully. A sufficient number of Republicans may support the latest border security bill, but not anything else on immigration, unless President Trump tells them to vote it down. Mandating a code of ethics for judges has a good chance of passing, but it will not lead to fundamental structural reform of the high court. Biden would expand the number of lower court seats, something that hasn’t happened in decades, if new appointments are made over multiple terms and give Republican presidents a chance to fill some of the lower court seats. There is a possibility of persuading Republicans to do so. At the very least, Biden could continue to fill vacancies with diverse and qualified candidates.
Mr. Biden also proposed long-overdue executive branch reforms that reasonable Republicans might support (mandatory disclosure of the president’s and vice president’s tax returns, enforcement mechanisms for violations of the Hatch Act and the Bonus Clause, transparency). ) may proceed (without President Trump taking the lead). He is calling for presidential pardons and repeal of many of the federal law’s “emergency powers” provisions that give the president unilateral powers. Biden also could replace both the attorney general and the FBI director to protect voting rights and abortion access and pursue a more aggressive strategy to deal with domestic terrorist organizations. (Recent performance in these areas has been overwhelming.)
A “bipartisan move” would essentially prevent the fear of MAGA obstruction and nihilism, and perhaps allow some modest legislation to pass. But by and large, this strategy leaves big questions in need of solutions (e.g., voting rights, child care, tax fairness, Dreamers, etc.) unresolved. If Democrats claim a majority but refuse to address the filibuster, this is what the future holds for Biden’s second term.
Don’t you think it’s very interesting? Well, voters should grill Democratic Senate candidates on whether to abolish or eradicate the filibuster. It would mean big changes for Biden, this country, and our democracy.